Future Institute forecaster: 'Simply selling stuff is not a model for the future'

The clothing industry is suffering from dampened consumer spending, but what macro trends lie behind this phenomenon? Boris Planer, expert for retail and consumer goods at the Frankfurt Future Institute, explains in this interview what the dominant trends of our time could mean for fashion. One hypothesis: in the face of a shift in values and a deep-rooted uncertainty among people, it will no longer suffice for companies to rely purely on selling goods in the future.

What is the fundamental sentiment of consumers that needs to be understood right now?

People were unsettled by the pandemic, then by the war in Europe and inflation. They fear environmental disaster and that robots and algorithms will take their jobs. And this insecurity remains strong, hence the deep-seated psychological need for security and grounding, for returning to one's roots, for feeling safe, for doing the right thing. This translates in fashion to natural colours and natural materials.

Before we talk more about fashion, what is the underlying cause of this insecurity?

The total loss of values and orientation and a clear narrative that structures society. There have always been changes and sudden disruptions. But this has accelerated particularly in the last 20 years or so.

The millennium began with a bang, with 9/11 and the rise of global terrorism. Then came the financial crisis, the Euro crisis, the refugee crisis, the rise of right-wing populism, and the European Union became unstable. Then came the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the inflation crisis.

You have to be over 30 years old today to have a conscious, active memory of a world not in perpetual crisis. And that shapes people.

And how does this affect people's relationship with fashion?

There are long-term psychological studies – for example, after the Second World War or from other parts of the world – that indicate that people who grow up in perpetual crisis react extremely sensitively to signals of change throughout their lives.

If we have the feeling that another economic crisis is coming, younger people will shut their wallets faster than previous generations who grew up in relative security.

This is something that affects the fashion industry very, very strongly, because fashion is not essential, not a necessity. It's "nice to have" if you can afford it.

So demand remains volatile – but what are people looking for when they do buy something?

At the moment, demand is indeed stronger for sustainability and transparency, for closeness to nature, durability, and repairability. But: Everyone is an individual, and every trend has a counter-trend. When I say that sustainability is important to many consumers, that might be 60 percent of the population, depending on the definition. This still means that it is not so important to the rest of the population, and the huge market for the fast-fashion companies of this world continues to exist.

"The fear of financial instability and the desire for greater sustainability mean that people want more durable goods,"

So can the fashion industry continue as before?

No one is saying that everyone is now paying attention to sustainability, but it is becoming more important, and it is so important that it cannot be neglected in the industry. Two basic needs come together here. The fear of financial instability and the desire for greater sustainability mean that people want more durable goods, so they don't need a new coat every two years, but they want a coat which will last for five years and that they can resell it.

How important is resale?

This is a huge topic, not least in the luxury sector. Young people in particular buy luxury goods primarily if they can assume that they can resell them on a resale platform and that items can also be repaired. You get more for your money, and it's good for sustainability.

People are also more interested in the value chain.

People are insecure and feel the need to have a little control and to do the right thing in their immediate environment. This also includes paying attention to what is happening in the supply chain. Is nature being exploited, are people working in low-wage countries under undignified conditions?

This may not interest everyone, but it interests people more than it did ten years ago. There is pressure on retailers and fashion brands to create transparency. Customer expectations are increasingly expecting that retailers and labels will take on this responsibility and do the right thing for consumers so that consumers don't have to worry so much about it.

For a few years now, there has been a lot of talk about more sustainable apparel, but the proportion of more sustainable items in conventional fashion retail is still low. Repairability is also still limited.

Absolutely. Also in consumer electronics, by the way. There is still a lot to be done. But this pressure of expectation from consumers is there. And this may not be reflected so much in the rise of sustainable fashion labels, which will always be a niche. It is reflected in the fact that a company such as C&A is launching an initiative to source sustainable cotton and to prove it.

But will that be enough in communication with people for them to really believe and will it make them shop there?

Of course, credibility has been damaged in recent years. Retailers have to make money. They will do what is necessary and avoid what they can avoid. Retailers must, of course, also be pushed towards greater sustainability and better working practices. But there is pressure from three sides.

Which are those?

There are not only these expectations from customers – especially young consumers – that are increasing the pressure. There is also pressure from legislation, for example for supply chains at the level of the European Union. And then there is also pressure from the financial sector.

How can we imagine the pressure from the financial sector?

In the future, companies will have difficulty obtaining financing if they cannot demonstrate a credible sustainability strategy. Investment funds and banks are already paying attention to this today. Banks are now offering better terms for loans if certain sustainability and equality targets are met. And so the pressure is coming from several sides, but also from the legislative side.

Keyword legislation: How high is the time pressure here really?

Legislation and these standards are shifting only very slowly. You really have to think in decades rather than years. We see this, for example, in the fact that the EU repeatedly backtracks when the pressure becomes too great.

"Controlling the supply chain in times of climate change is a challenge. Whoever manages this best has a competitive advantage. In this environment, it's about finding sustainable materials that are less dependent on climate change,"

Where is the pressure on politicians coming from?

The fact that the standard of living in Europe has not fallen even more sharply in view of the aging society is also due to the fact that clothing and electronic goods in particular have become increasingly cheaper – because production has been relocated to Asia. Do we now want to produce another inflationary surge? Or do we really want to ban the introduction of new combustion engines on the roads now? Is the EU pulling the plug again? There is relatively little planning security. Politicians in Brussels want to be re-elected. If the economic pressure becomes too great, a sustainability initiative may well be put on the back burner.

The EU is working on the implementation of green directives that will also affect the clothing industry. How should companies prepare for this?

Do we now want to make fashion more expensive, after food has just become 30 percent more expensive? I don't think so. That's why I suspect that many companies will indeed move towards sustainability, but slowly and only gradually. The important signal to consumers is that they are committed and working on progress, but keeping prices under control. I think that's roughly what the market wants.

In addition to the uncertainties of legislation, the fashion industry is also facing volatile weather.

Controlling the supply chain in times of climate change is a challenge. Whoever manages this best has a competitive advantage. In recent years, we have seen how drought has decimated the cotton harvest in the US and torrential rain has almost completely destroyed the cotton harvest in Pakistan. In this environment, it is about finding sustainable materials that are less dependent on climate change. This is now a race for speed and innovation.

Polyester is considered harmful because it is made from petroleum and releases microplastics. Some brands are therefore relying more on natural fibers such as cotton. But now this is also problematic…

Completely abandoning established materials in the short term is unrealistic. We have a similar challenge in the food industry, where climate change is affecting the Arabica bean and companies are now busy finding heat-resistant coffee varieties. Of course, it takes 20, 30 years until they are on the shelves as a mass-produced product. But the work on it is starting now. The research and then the cultivation on a large scale take time. This also applies to the fashion industry and its challenges.

How will climate change affect the clothes we wear?

In sportswear, for example, these are jogging outfits that protect you from overheating on increasingly frequent days with extreme heat, or running shoes that withstand extremely heavy rainfall, which is becoming increasingly common.

"According to a United Nations analysis, we here in Europe are now the first generation in 400 years to have a lower material standard of living than the previous generation,"

Apart from the clothes we wear, does climate change challenge anything more fundamental in fashion?

The seasons are no longer as clearly defined as they used to be. In recent years, we have increasingly experienced that the change from winter to summer has been almost seamless. Autumn as a transitional season no longer exists in the same way, or at least you can no longer rely on it. As a fashion retailer, you were essentially in the betting business for a long time. You bet on what the weather would be like and what colors people would want to wear. Then you filled up the warehouse because the supply chains were so slow.

But it can't go on like this?

The fashion industry has thrived on the seasons. There were and are fashion chains that only expand into countries where there are real seasons that are clearly different from each other. Simply so that they can benefit from this traditional business. Something is breaking away from the fashion trade right now. At the same time, people are also paying more attention to money for the foreseeable future, and the willingness to buy collections for three weeks of autumn is decreasing.

Seasonal fashion is becoming increasingly uninteresting?

I believe that consumers are generally moving away from clear ideas of what fall and spring fashion should look like. Spring fashion may remain more important because spring is emotionally more charged. For example, if consumers want to cut something from their fashion budget, the fall budget will probably be sacrificed first.

Does the move away from seasonal fashion cycles speak for a certain consumer fatigue? Do they seem too decadent or are things moving too fast for people?

It's actually about economic insecurity, the standard of living is falling. This is due to the rapid aging of society, to the need for greater redistribution of income. According to a United Nations analysis, we here in Europe are now the first generation in 400 years to have a lower material standard of living than the previous generation.

So people will have to prioritise. They will travel less and focus more on the essentials – in consumer goods, electrical appliances and fashion. Young people know that they will no longer receive a large pension from the state and are adjusting their life goals accordingly.

You see a change in attitude accompanying the change in consumption.

People are looking for different life ideas. There is a move away from materialism. In the 80s, materialism was an income, social status, business card, branded clothing. This is no longer something to be admired for, it is no longer a real status symbol. The status symbol for many young people is no longer the expensive car. Instead, we now have this big trend towards the intangible status symbol.

What counts now?

The status symbols of the future are more like: good friends, experiences, a bit of travel, education, being in good physical shape. This is a challenge for the fashion industry. For retailers, even in the fashion industry, simply selling goods is not a model for the future. Selling more and more goods to people who have less money and are also turning away from materialism: If you think ten to 15 years into the future, that's simply not a growth model.

What could an alternative look like?

You have to fundamentally rethink business models. For example, an ecosystem of products and services would be appropriate, so that you sell clothing but then also repair it. Offering sewing courses and repair courses for people, perhaps even becoming a manufacturer of sewing machines that a normal person can afford as a mainstream fashion retailer.