One year of 'Liberation Day': where Trump's tariff plans stand today

When Donald Trump issued an invitation to the White House Rose Garden exactly one year ago, it was already clear to many that something significant was coming. The topic was to be tariffs, “unfair trade” and the American economy. The US president celebrated it as “Liberation Day”. In Germany, the EU and other parts of the world, however, his tariff announcements caused dismay. Many saw the world on the brink of a trade war.

On that day, the US president imposed tariffs on almost the entire world, not even sparing traditional partners. “The friend is in many cases worse than the enemy,” he said. The US economy had been “plundered”, “robbed” and “raped”. Now was the time to fight back.

Since then, governments, companies, consumers and courts have been grappling with the consequences. In a landmark ruling in February, the US Supreme Court largely overturned the tariffs based on their legal foundation. Trump then resorted to the next tariff law. One year later, it remains unclear where Trump's tariff offensive is heading.

These three issues could still slow down Trump's tariff plans.

1. Can Trump's administration keep the tariffs?

For the US administration, the tariffs are important for two reasons. Firstly, the hope is that more companies will establish themselves in the US instead of exporting there. The US trade deficit with the EU, for example, has been a thorn in Trump's side for years.

Secondly, Trump is targeting the revenue from the tariffs to finance tax cuts, among other things. However, it is unclear how much of the tariff revenue will actually benefit the government.

A few weeks ago, a New York court cleared the way for refunds for companies. Importers are entitled to repayments for tariffs already paid, provided they are the duties overturned by the US Supreme Court. According to calculations by the University of Pennsylvania, the amount is approximately 175 billion dollars. This would correspond to about 2.5 percent of the budget. The US logistics group Fedex, among others, filed a lawsuit following the ruling.

2. How reliable is Trump's new tariff instrument?

Immediately after the ruling, Trump had the next tariff tool ready: first 10, then 15 percent. The US president based this on a 1974 trade act that allows him to impose tariffs on imports for up to 150 days. After that, congressional approval would be necessary.

Experts assume, however, that such an extension is unlikely just a few months before the midterm elections in November. The tariffs are unpopular not only with trading partners but also with the domestic population.

It is conceivable that Trump will resort to another law from the summer onwards. His administration recently launched an investigation into whether structural overcapacities among trading partners are detrimental to the US economy, including in individual sectors of the European Union. In the past, the US has used this mechanism to impose punitive tariffs on China.

Regardless of which tariff law Trump ultimately relies on, the Supreme Court's ruling generally sets strict limits on the president's ability to levy tariffs. However, it could take years for the courts to provide clarity, a problem that Trump might no longer face as president.

3. EU parliament demands changes – EU deal remains open

In the EU, a year after “Liberation Day”, the mood is still sombre. Although the community of states managed to avert threatened tariffs of 30 percent after tough negotiations, the EU had to swallow several bitter pills for the deal finalised at the end of July at Trump's golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland.

Additionally, from the EU's perspective, the US has already violated the agreement on several occasions. Just a few weeks after it was concluded, tariffs on more than 400 products containing steel or aluminium were raised from 15 to 50 percent.

The European Parliament, in particular, wants to link points of the agreement to security clauses, thereby forcing Trump to honour his commitments. It also demands that the US reduce the remaining tariffs on EU steel and aluminium derivatives to 15 percent within six months of the agreement coming into force. The US ambassador to the EU, Andrew Puzder, had previously warned the EU against making any further changes to the agreement.

German companies continue to face an uncertain future

The “Liberation Day” tariff shock left clear marks on the German economy. In 2025, exports to the US collapsed, and China replaced the United States as the most important trading partner. “Massive tariff increases, erratic changes and persistent legal uncertainty are noticeably slowing down trade with our most important sales market,” said Melanie Vogelbach, an expert in economic policy at the DIHK.

From the US perspective, the tariffs have also missed their target, said Vogelbach. Direct investment from Germany in the US has declined significantly, and companies intend to reduce it further. “The shift of production to the US at the expense of Europe, as sought by the US administration, is therefore not happening.”

This article was translated to English using an AI tool.

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