Shopper numbers down for 10th consecutive month

Retail research group SPSL's Retail Traffic Index for May showed shopper number falls of 3 % year-on-year and 2.7% against April. This makes it 10 months out of the last 12 in which a year-on-year decline has been recorded. Neither of the two May Bank Holiday weekends recorded year-on-year improvements in the number of shopping trips made. For May Day Bank Holiday weekend (29th April to 1st May) the RTI fell by 0.1% against last year and over the late May Bank Holiday weekend (27th May to 29th May) it was 0.6% lower.

Dr Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL commented; "At a headline level, there was little for retailers to be cheery about in May. Consumer confidence remained fragile and depressed, and the wettest May for 20 years hardly encouraged shoppers out. This said there were a few chinks of light in the figures to signify some better news.

"Firstly, the year-on-year fall of 3.0% was better than SPSL had forecast (-4.4%) and is well above the 4-5% year-on-year deficit band in which retail footfall has been running of late. Key to this was an improvement to the figures in the South East, where shopper numbers were down just 3.4% year-on-year against a projection of - 5.0%. We shall await to see whether this is the first sign of a return to health amongst shoppers in the South East.

"Secondly, some sectors are showing strong uplifts in shopper numbers. In particular the baby goods and childrenswear sector is seeing a remarkable surge. During May retail traffic in the sector grew by 7.8% year-on-year. Elsewhere, one other notable sector on which to comment is in homeware and DIY, where shopper numbers in May held their own (0.0% change) against last year. We shall watch with interest to see whether this is indicative of consumers beginning to release the brake on their home investment plans and expenditure as the national house market strengthens again.

"The latest RTI figures add weight to the expected 'no change' decision from the MPC over interest rates on Thursday. The fact that the year-on-year trend in retail traffic levels has not worsened in May, but remains negative, will give comfort to those who want to see less reliance on consumer spending in the economy.