Talk Too Soon Of Christmas Crisis

The latest Retail Traffic Index shows the three-month year-on-year trend at its lowest level for 12 months, -0.8 per cent. SPSL, however, is standing by its forecast that Christmas trading will be similar to 2003. Although the acceleration in footfall towards the end of the month was lighter than anticipated. Shopper numbers for the week starting November 21 were 4.3 per cent down on the same week last year.

Dr Tim Denison, director of knowledge management at SPSL, said: "If you look at the trend over the past six years, shoppers have started their festive spree later and later each year, despite retail attempts to make them do otherwise, so the November figures should be taken in context. Certainly it is not indicative of a Christmas freeze this year."

"The fact is that more people do their reconnaissance work online in November before visiting the shops in December. Furthermore, 'forward planning' is a phase and a process that is rapidly disappearing in modern day living, being replaced by 'last minute manoeuvring'."

Despite November's disappointing figures, SPSL is expecting a marginal drop in year-on-year traffic by 0.3 per cent. Denison further said: "There is no question of a Christmas crisis. Our projection remains that traffic levels will be static this Christmas compared to last. "Our advice to shoppers is to grab bargains as soon as they hit the high streets - there is no guarantee that they will be rewarded this year for delaying their spending until the eleventh hour in the run up to Christmas."