US ports face congestion as extended retail import peak winds down

US retail imports are expected to taper off following an extended peak season, but congestion and unresolved labour negotiations continue to pose challenges for supply chains, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates published on Monday.

Ports covered by the report handled 2.37 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) of loaded imports in September, up 3.4 percent from August and 12.6 percent year on year. September was the busiest month of 2026 so far and the third-busiest since the report began keeping records. A TEU represents one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said sustained import volumes had caused backups at some ports, with cargo on the West Coast sitting for extended periods before being transferred to rail cars. However, most holiday merchandise has already arrived in the country.

“Nonetheless, most holiday merchandise is already here, and retailers are working closely with their supply chain partners to ensure that the supply of holiday gifts continues to flow smoothly,” Gold said.

Labour uncertainty also remains at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. A strike was avoided at the beginning of November after the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26, which represents watchmen at several container terminals, reached a short-term contract extension with the Pacific Maritime Association.

The agreement has been extended three times for short periods, most recently through November 20. No long-term settlement has been reached following the previous contract’s expiry in July 2025.

Tariff changes extend the import season

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett linked the prolonged peak to changes in US tariffs, following an extended import season in 2025 when retailers brought forward shipments ahead of tariff increases.

Expectations of another extended peak initially faded after the Supreme Court struck down the high “Liberation Day” tariffs, Hackett said. New tariffs introduced in the second quarter then prompted a renewed import surge from May through mid-October, supported by continued consumer spending despite rising inflation.

The result has been a longer period of elevated cargo volumes, rather than a short seasonal spike, adding pressure to port operations and onward transport connections.

October figures were not yet available when the report was released on Monday. Global Port Tracker estimated imports at 2.26 million TEU for the month, up 9.1 percent year on year. It forecasts 2.05 million TEU in November and 2.03 million in December, increases of 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

Those projections would bring full-year imports to 26 million TEU, up 2 percent from 25.4 million in 2025. Although monthly volumes are expected to decline from September’s peak, they would remain above year-earlier levels through December.

The report forecasts year-on-year declines in the first three months of 2027, with imports projected at 2.04 million TEU in January, 1.89 million in February and 1.92 million in March. For retailers, the near-term picture is therefore one of easing volumes, but continuing pressure at some points in the supply chain.

The figures cover container imports across retail categories, rather than apparel and footwear specifically. They measure cargo volumes, not fashion sales or consumer demand for individual product categories.